Sunday was supposed to be the game where the Chicago Bears had to find their groove in the running game. They found themselves facing the worst-rated run defense in terms of rushing yards allowed in the first two games.
On the other hand, running back D’Andre Swift and the Bears couldn’t do anything against the Colts. Quarterback Caleb Williams was forced to throw the ball 52 times. The Bears ran for only 63 yards.
So just how bad has the running game been through the first three games? Here’s what the stats and analytics say.
Not so fast
Through the first two weeks, the offensive line was bad, but the underlying analytics suggested they weren’t great at run blocking. According to ESPN AnalyticsThe Bears were the 17th ranked offensive line in run blocking “win rate.” That’s perfectly average in a 32-team league.
Could the run blocking be better? Absolutely. Is it the worst in the league? ESPN’s analytics suggest it isn’t.
The numbers for Swift, however, are pretty atrocious.
According to NFL Next Gen StatsSwift is the last NFL player to rush EPA in three games [note: all rankings here are prior to Monday night’s doubleheader]. Expected runs added give each game a value, similar to wins above replacement in baseball. Swift’s minus-21 EPA per run is the worst among the 50 qualified runners.
His -83 rushing yards above expectations [which predicts how many yards a ball carrier should pick up based on where the defenders are] is also dead last. He averages 3.04 seconds behind the line of scrimmage when receiving a pass. That’s the sixth-longest time behind the line of scrimmage among all running backs. His 68 yards after contact ranks 37th among all rushers.
Swift’s efficiency rating on Next Gen Stats is second worst in NFL [behind only Arizona’s Trey Benson]This suggests that it expends much more energy moving from left to right rather than from north to south.
As a team, the Bears run inside the offensive tackles 36 percent of the time, and 61 percent of their runs come outside. Only six teams have run between the tackles at a lower rate than the Bears.
The offensive line is certainly important in all of this. If the running back is facing defenders in the backfield, he’s going to spend a lot more time moving left or right. A year ago, Swift ranked 10th in the NFL in efficiency when running behind the Philadelphia Eagles’ offensive line.
So which player is it? Probably somewhere in between.
Interestingly, Bears backup running back Roschon Johnson ranked ninth among all running backs in Week 3 with 2.0 expected points added per carry. Swift was -9.9 in the same game behind the same offensive line. Now, Johnson only saw eight carries, and that sample size is far too small to give him any real significance.
But it makes you think.
It’s time to start the update
Last week I spent a lot of time talking about Caleb Williams not getting time to throw. The numbers were much better in Week 3.
Against the Colts, Williams averaged 2.82 seconds to throw, the ninth-most among QBs heading into Monday night’s game. He faced 14 pressures. That sounds like a lot, but it’s not when you consider he dropped back to pass 56 times. His 25 percent pressure rate was among the best in the league in Week 3.
Simply put, the Bears protected him much more effectively against the Colts. Williams’ 363 passing yards were the most ever by a Bears rookie quarterback.
Record holder
Bears tight end Marcedes Lewis, 40, played in his 271st career NFL game Sunday, tying Cowboys tight end Jason Witten for the most games played by an NFL tight end.
In Sunday’s game, Lewis surpassed Tony Gonzalez, who played 270 NFL games.
Lewis entered the league as a first-round pick in the 2006 draft. He will set the tight end record Sunday against the Rams at Soldier Field.
The Centenary of Rome
Rome Odunze became the first Bears rookie to top 100 receiving yards since Anthony Miller had 122 yards in a game in 2018. Odunze finished with 112 receiving yards and a touchdown on six receptions.
Williams kept throwing it through the air to find Odunze. Odunze’s 21.3 air yards per target were the second-most air yards per target in the NFL in Week 3, behind Green Bay’s Christian Watson. That’s among 142 players [prior to Monday].
His 16.4 yards per target this season ranks sixth among NFL receivers. Odunze was a deep-passing threat during his college career in Washington, and that’s exactly how the Bears are using him so far.
