Fresh off their bye week, the Lions travel to Dallas hoping to extend their winning streak to three games.
The Lions started -3 against the Cowboys in Week 6 at BetMGM online sports betting Sunday evening.
Early betting saw no movement on the Lions spread, although the price moved from -110 to -115.
Dallas also enters Sunday’s game on a winning streak. After falling to the Ravens in Week 3 to fall to 1-2, Dallas reeled off back-to-back wins against the Giants and Steelers to get above .500.
Below, bettors can find my Lions vs. Cowboys prediction for Sunday’s Week 6 contest, based on NFL Betting Lines.
Lions vs. Cowboys Prediction: Detroit Spreads Too Short
I’m betting the Lions will cover the spread (-3, -115) against the Cowboys in Week 6.
Detroit has two clear advantages over the Cowboys that should produce a win.
First, the Lions should run the ball at will against a Cowboys defense incapable of stopping the run. According to Pro Football Focus, Detroit is fifth in offensive rushing ratings, while the Cowboys are 32nd in rushing defense.
It’s also a great selling point for Dallas, which just faced two teams ranked 28th or worse in PFF’s offensive rushing ratings. However, they are 0-2 in a row (SU) against teams 10th or better.
Additionally, the Dallas offensive line is going to have their hands full with a strong pass rush from Detroit.
The Lions are second in PFF pressure ratings. Conversely, Dallas ranks 26th in PFF pass blocking grades.
If Dallas can’t protect Dak Prescott, I wonder how they move the ball down the field against a Detroit pass defense that is quietly T-12 in PFF coverage grades.
Additionally, Lions head coach Dan Campbell has produced excellent results when given extended rest.
Campbell is 12-5-1 SU with eight or more days between games and 7-3-1 SU with 10 or more days to prepare, whether he’s a market favorite or an underdog.
Additionally, he is 7-3 ATS as a -3 or lower favorite and 17-9 ATS overall as a market favorite.
One final thing to consider with Campbell: he does very well in revenge spots.
Since the start of last season, Campbell is 9-2 ATS against teams that won the previous meeting, including 7-1 as a market favorite.
Pair these trends with Detroit’s advantages and I’ll back the Lions at -3 or better on Sunday afternoon.
