ASHBURN, Va. — Both Chicago Bear And Washington Commanders drafted the quarterback they wanted last spring: Chicago selected USC’s Caleb Williams first overall; one choice later, Washington took Jayden Daniels from LSU.
So far, every QB has lived up to their team’s expectations. And if they continue their promising trajectory, both men could compete for individual and team honors in the years to come. But it starts with an award this season: NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.
When the Commanders (5-2) host the Bears (4-2) on Sunday (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS) at Northwest Stadium, Daniels will enter the game as the favorite to win the award at -120. , according to ESPN BET. Williams is next at +105, followed by New York Giants‘ Malik Nabers (+2200) and the Jacksonville Jaguars‘ Brian Thomas Jr.. (+2500).
It’s possible, however, that the story of the prize favorites going head-to-head could be spoiled, as Daniels is questionable due to a rib injury. But the reward will be for a season, not for a match.
ESPN Bears reporter Courtney Cronin and Commanders reporter John Keim weigh in on OROY’s chances for Williams and Daniels.
Jayden Daniels, Commanders
Statistics: Daniels has thrown for 1,410 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions and is trailingBuffalo Bills‘ Josh Allen(77.6) and the Baltimore Ravens‘Lamar Jackson(74.3) total QBR at 73.9. Daniels totaled 372 yards and four touchdowns. He leads the NFL with a 75.6 completion percentage.
Beyond statistics: With 90 passing yards and 28 rushing yards, Daniels would join former Washington star Robert Griffin III as the only players in NFL history with 1,500 passing yards and 400 rushing yards in his first eight career games. Daniels has already set two records: highest completion percentage after four games at 82.1% and first to complete at least 85% of his passes in consecutive games.
Why he could win OROY: After four games, he was already mentioned as a possible MVP candidate and was named Rookie of the Month for September. There are several reasons for Washington’s offensive resurgence, among them coordinator Kliff Kingsbury and his staff. But it all starts with Daniels.
Washington is averaging 30.1 points per game – it hasn’t topped 20 points per game since 2017. Daniels’ accuracy helps in the passing game, and the threat of his run helps others in the running game .
Also consider that Daniels joined a franchise that hasn’t had a winning season since 2016 and won just four games last year — and that has a new coaching staff and an overhauled roster. Yet after just seven games, the Commanders are considered serious contenders to win the division.
“He’s the leader of our team,” veteran tight end Zach Ertz said. “He’s a phenomenal player and will be for a long time.”
Why it might fail: Daniels’ durability in the second half will be tested. He’s been hit 79 times this season, sixth among quarterbacks.
At 210 pounds, Daniels is lightweight – will injuries slow him down down the stretch? More likely, Williams could emerge with the talent around him. He has a 75.3 QBR in his last three games, up from 46.5 for the season, and he benefits from a stronger defense that gives him more opportunities. — Keim
Caleb Williams, Bear
Statistics: Williams threw for 1,317 yards, nine touchdowns and five interceptions. His completion percentage of 65.3% and passer rating of 88.7 both rank 20th among starting quarterbacks, while his total QBR of 46.4 is 26th. After a bumpy 1-2 start, Williams has thrown six touchdowns and just one interception in his last two games for an offense that ranks 12th in points per game (24.7).
Beyond statistics: If Williams throws for 300 yards and throws two touchdowns against the Commanders, he will become the fifth quarterback in the Super Bowl era to have three such games in his first seven starts.
Why he could win OROY: Williams had a passer rating above 100 in each of his last three games while completing 74.1% of his passes since Week 4, and he’s the catalyst for an offense with plenty of potential.
Chicago’s offense began to take off as they racked up 35 points in back-to-back wins over the Carolina Panthers and the Jaguars. The No. 1 overall pick is three passing touchdowns away from setting a rookie franchise record (12) and would eclipse Mitchell TrubiskyBears rookie passing record (2,193 yards) averaging 219.5 yards per game.
And while he raised the bar for a once-dormant passing attack, Williams also showed he can be a threat to create outside of structure with 110 rushing yards (7.3 yards/carry) during of his last three matches.
“I mean, who are the defenses going to stop?” wide receiver Keenan Allen said. “Are you going to stop the quarterback or stop the guys running the routes? It’s hard to do both.”
Why it may fail: Team success can influence a player’s chances of winning Offensive Rookie of the Year. Stroud won it last year leading the Houston Texans to the playoffs. The Bears will need to keep winning in a stacked NFC North, where all four teams have winning records and the three defenses Williams will face twice each in Weeks 11-18 rank in the top 10 in EPA/gameplay.
This streak will ultimately determine whether the Bears are a playoff team, and their path to getting there will demand a lot from their rookie quarterback. — Cronin
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