I put my faith in the Chicago Bears last week. And like so many Bears fans, that faith was rewarded with pain.
Tyrique Stevenson’s inability to pay attention for a full hour of play blew up what could have been an otherwise rosy week, leaving me vulnerable to a push from our resident NFL expert, the Rhode Island Scumbag. That’s what he did, eventually moving into the realm of profitability thanks to his instinct to weaken the defense of the Baltimore Ravens and Carolina Panthers as a whole.
This week I’m going to have to avoid the temptation to chase bad beats with lots of money. Our friend Scumbag will have the chance to spend some of his new money. With a strong roster of unreliable home favorites over a 15-game schedule, there will be plenty of opportunities for both.
Let’s see what we have. All Scumbag analyzes are in quotes below.
Last week, a heads-up by Chris Brooks to stay out of the end zone at the end of the Green Bay-Jacksonville game kept us from going 3-0 and making a nice four-unit profit. [Ed. note. OH I’M SO SORRY AN UNLIKELY OCCURENCE AT THE END OF THE GAME DIDN’T GO YOUR WAY, I CANNOT RELATE]. Fortunately, two of the bets were impressively settled, resulting in a two-unit profit on the day.
Looking to keep the positive momentum going, this Scumbag will once again find actionable matchups to take advantage of as we reach the halfway point of the NFL season. The gap between me and the person who does this for a living (Christian) is slowly but surely closing, so I’m curious to see where we are this time next week.
Buffalo Bills (-6) vs. Miami Dolphins (one unit)
To say that Miami historically struggles against Buffalo would be an understatement. The last time Miami won a game over Bills Mafia was in December 2016, a 34-31 overtime victory.
Since then, Buffalo is 8-0 against Miami at home and 14-2 overall. Even though Miami got Tua Tagovailoa back last week, he didn’t make a difference in the first meeting this season between these two teams, a 31-10 loss at Miami.
Last week, Arizona’s offensive weapons worked their way through Miami’s defense when it counted. It should be about the same for Buffalo this week. Josh Allen and the offense as a whole look more dangerous with the addition of Amari Cooper (even though he was banged up last week). I have faith in Buffalo to take care of business on both sides of the ball and extend their home winning streak in emphatic fashion.
Washington Commanders (-3.5) vs. New York Giants (one unit)
Washington has been playing some impressive football lately and looks to build on last week’s thrilling win over Chicago. The Giants are coming off a tough loss Monday night against Pittsburgh and could be without their best running back, Tyrone Tracy.
The last time these two teams met, Washington made seven field goals en route to a 21-18 Washington victory. The Commanders’ offense and defense have continued to improve since then, and I can’t imagine they’ll be held out of the end zone by the Giants for another 60 minutes.
Daniel Jones’ struggles at home also contribute to my feeling that Washington is getting involved in East Rutherford and taking care of business. Ultimately, a healthy Jayden Daniels should demonstrate growth in his offense and lead his Commanders to victory.
Denver Broncos (+9.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens (one unit)
Here we are looking to make a profit out of Denver again. Both teams helped cash in bets on this Scumbag last week, and I’m counting on Denver to help us do it again.
The Bo Nix-led offense showed up again last week (albeit against the JV Carolina Panthers). The defense was once again as solid as advertised. Baltimore, on the other hand, scored a few points but was ultimately outplayed by the Cleveland Browns and their latest AARP retread, Jameis Winston. [Ed. note: Jameis Winston is nearly a full decade younger than either of us].
Although Baltimore added some offense this week in the form of Diontae Johnson, it’s the defense that has let them down this season. Baltimore is currently allowing 26.1 points per game, good for 26th in the league. Denver, on the other hand, sits at 15.0, third best. Something is going to have to give for the line to make sense. I’m betting on Denver’s defense to keep the game close, leading to a Denver coverage.
Last week: 2-1, +2 units
Season to date: 14-11-1 (.558), +1 units
Let’s try to get back on track with a shotgun blast. It always works, right? React to a losing week by increasing your bets?
Regardless, I still believe in the Bears offense, even despite Matt Eberflus. The Cardinals have a worse defense than Washington and Chicago now has something to prove after vomiting in its chest for most of Week 8.
35 points is the highest total in any Giants game at Meadowlands this season. The stadium was built on a swamp and the New York games demonstrate this in its entirety. I don’t like the confluence of two bad defenses here, but even if Washington scores 28 points, I don’t trust Daniel Jones to add 17 more.
The Bengals need a good game and, hey, here come the Raiders! Cincinnati managed its business against bad teams after its annual September lull. The Falcons are an instinctive choice: two unreliable teams face off and the home team scores less than three points. At the time of publication, Micah Parsons still had not practiced, suggesting that Dallas will have difficulty making Kirk Cousins uncomfortable and neutralizing Atlanta’s offense.
Phew. I like these choices more after talking about them. I also kind of hate them. Ah, well.
Last week: 0-2, -3 units
Season to date: 12-9 (.571), +5 units
This article was originally published on For The Win: The Dolphins’ historic hatred of Buffalo, the Ravens’ shadow and Week 9 best bets
