Adding NFL retreads Jordan Phillips and Quinton Jefferson earlier this week is most likely not going to have a tangible impact on the Buffalo Bills’ defensive line. They are merely fresh bodies with prior knowledge of the defense, signed off the scrap heap to fill in for injured DeWayne Carter and Dawuane Smoot.
What would impact the D-line? Some of the players the Bills are relying on to be studs – such as Ed Oliver, DaQuan Jones, Von Miller and AJ Epenesa – to start playing that way because halfway through the season, despite a 7-2 record, that really hasn’t happened.
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As the Bills go into Indianapolis Sunday, they are currently sitting 21st in the NFL in sack percentage (6.2%), 23rd in pressure percentage (32%), tied for 25th in yards allowed per rush (4.8) and tied for 26th in most rushes of at least 10 yards allowed (35).
Those deficiencies are largely attributable to a defensive line – one that ranks sixth in the league in terms of most positional salary cap space allocated – that has played well in spurts but overall has been underwhelming.
Yes, the Bills’ record and stranglehold of the AFC East is the most important metric of all, but over the next few weeks, the defensive line has to start playing better if the defense is going to reach peak efficiency, particularly given that after Indianapolis, three of the next four opponents are teams that played for conference titles in 2023 – the Chiefs, 49ers and Lions.
“As a defense … we’ve got to be more consistent across the board,” coach Sean McDermott admitted. “We’ve got some work to do there. For any team to say they’re satisfied at the midway point with everything they’re doing, that’s just not who we are.”
Asked specifically about the pass rush, McDermott said to judge it solely on sack percentage and pressure rate isn’t entirely fair because coverage is part of it, but also better management of down and distance. Meaning, the Bills need to be better on early downs to get the opponent in obvious passing situations where the pass rushers can attack without worrying about the run.
“I think if you look at last week’s game, we didn’t have enough third-and-long, one-dimensional-type situations,” McDermott said. “That doesn’t speak of the pass rush, that speaks of first- and second-down defense, in particular first-down defense, and then the complementary piece of putting a team into a one-dimensional-type situation as a team.
“And it’s not just the front four, the coverage piece has to work together with it as well. So these are all areas where we are trying to improve and become a better football team.”
Here’s my preview of the game:
The QB Matchup: Josh Allen vs. Joe Flacco
Facing the 39-year-old Flacco should be an opportunity for the pass rush to eat a bit. He had a rough first start for the Colts last week, but that’s because he was under siege by the blitz-happy Vikings on the road. We know the Bills aren’t going to blitz much at all, so the front four has to get home because while Flacco may be a statue in the pocket, if he has time to allow route combinations to develop, he can still sling it and pick a defense apart.
“One of the best to play the position,” McDermott said. “He’s been playing it for quite some time as we’re all aware and there’s not a defense he hasn’t seen already from a disguise standpoint.”
Allen has grown accustomed to defenses protecting against explosive plays and keeping things in front of them, but here’s the thing: The Bills don’t have anyone capable of being an explosive downfield receiver and they’re actually at their best when Allen is patiently taking what these defenses – Miami being the latest example last week – are giving him. And based on what he’s seen on film, he’s expecting the Colts to play the same way.
“Typically from what they’ve shown this year, pretty heavy in zone defense, don’t bring a whole lot of pressures on first and second down, but when they get you in third down, they’re a good unit,” said Allen of the Colts, something that should have him licking his chops.
Against the Dolphins, Allen’s average depth of target per attempt was 3.7 yards, one of the lowest figures of his career, and more than four yards below his season average of 8.1. It continued a season-long trend because that 8.1 average would be the lowest of his career if it continues. However, because of the fine work of Khalil Shakir, Ray Davis and James Cook, the Bills totaled 188 yards after the catch against Miami which computed to 80% of Allen’s total passing yardage.
For the season, the Bills have 1,195 YAC which is fifth-most in the NFL, so if the Colts are going to play zone to protect against deep shots, Allen should feed off that.
“They play a lot of don’t break defense where they’re going to force you to take some things that are underneath,” Allen said. “I think their pass rush unit is pretty dang good. You look at every game that they’ve played, they’ve been in every single one. And I think that’s large in part due to their defense creating some takeaways and forcing field goals and not touchdowns down there in the red zone. So it’s a really good unit.”
Buffalo Bills who should impact the game
∎ TE Dalton Kincaid: I’ve been hard in my judgements on Kincaid because in his second season, one in which many expected he would become a driver of the Bills’ offense, he’s averaging 36.9 receiving yards per game which is 18th among NFL tight ends. That doesn’t cut it for me, not for a player who the Bills traded up in the first round of 2023 to select. With the WR position banged up and mostly mediocre, he needs to get more involved.
∎ C Connor McGovern: As the anchor in the middle, he’s facing a stiff test in the form of the Colts’ two outstanding DTs, DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart. Both players are inside Pro Football Focus’ top-20 graded DTs. For a Bills comparison, Oliver grades out at 44th, Jones at 70th. If the interior of the line – McGovern and guards David Edwards and O’Cyrus Torrence – handles its business, the Bills should be able to run against a Colts’ ground defense that ranks 31st at 149.8 yards allowed per game.
∎ DT DaQuan Jones: The Colts are without veteran C Ryan Kelly and RG Will Fries (both on injured reserve), so they’ll have two rookies starting up front in fourth-round pick C Tanor Bortolini and undrafted free agent RG Dalton Tucker. Bortolini has played well in his four games, but this is a matchup that Jones has to control, and the same goes for Oliver when he’s lined up over Tucker.
∎ NCB Taron Johnson: He’s so important to everything the Bills do and in this game, his role ratchets up. Josh Downs is a very good and slippery slot WR who Johnson will see often in his coverage area, and Jonathan Taylor is one of the best RBs in the NFL when the Colts properly utilize him. Johnson will be critical in limiting the effectiveness of both players.
∎ LB Terrel Bernard: It’s clear that he’s not playing at 100% with his sore ankle and in the Miami game he was almost a liability, especially in run defense. At 224 pounds, Bernard is always going to be compromised when he’s dealing with offensive linemen who can get out to the second level. He has to win with his speed and technique because if he doesn’t, he can get swallowed up. The Dolphins exploited him, and the Colts are certainly capable of doing the same thing.
Indianapolis Colts who should impact the game
∎ RB Jonathan Taylor: He has played only six games as he missed three-plus with an injury, but he has accumulated 502 rushing yards and five TDs, is averaging 4.8 yards per attempt, and he also has 10 catches for 100 yards. If the Colts can get him going against a Bills run defense that has not been great, that should open up Flacco to use play action.
∎ LG Quenton Nelson: He’s one of the best guards in the league, and assuming LT Bernard Raimann plays (he missed the Vikings game with a concussion) they are a formidable force on the left side. With Von Miller back, he reclaimed his spot on the defensive left side and Greg Rousseau lined up mostly on the right and if that happens again, Rousseau will be in for quite a test. Rousseau is the Bills’ best pass rusher, so he has to avoid getting neutralized.
∎ WR Josh Downs: He has been a weapon in the slot regardless of whether he’s facing man or zone coverage. The 2023 third-round pick leads the Colts with 38 catches and 22 first downs. Last year he caught 68 passes for 771 yards and two TDs and he’d probably have more production in 2024 if Anthony Richardson wasn’t the QB for the first half of the season. Now that Flacco is back there, he should be able to utilize Downs a little more effectively. And he may be even more important if WR Michael Pittman can’t play.
∎ DT DeForest Buckner: The 6-foot-7, 295-pounder missed five games with an injury, but he’s back and has been excellent in Indy’s losses to the Texans and Vikings. He totaled nine pressures and two sacks and is a rock against the run which he has been since he entered the league in 2016.
∎ LB Zaire Franklin: The former Syracuse standout leads the team with 638 snaps played and leads the NFL with 95 tackles, but the Bills can take advantage of him in the passing game as he has allowed 32 completions on 37 passes (86.5%) into his area for 294 yards. Allen showed his willingness last week to use Cook and Davis in the passing game and matchups with Franklin could prove fruitful.
Sal’s prediction: Bills 26, Colts 19
For the second week in a row, the Bills will be playing a desperate team. They survived at home against division rival Miami, and now they go on the road to play the 4-5 Colts who are in the AFC wild-card mix, but currently sit outside of the top seven.
Despite their middling record, the Colts are not an easy out. All nine of their games have been decided by eight points or less so they are always in it right to the end. The Bills have played only four one-score games, but they did win three including the thriller Sunday against Miami.
Ultimately, the Bills have the better roster with the better quarterback, and if Allen plays clean, Buffalo – a team that has topped 30 points six times this year – will do enough to get the victory, even if it doesn’t get to 30 because the Colts’ offense ranks 22nd at 20.9 points per game.
Buffalo Bills 2024 schedule
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Week 1: Sunday, Sept . 8, vs. Arizona Cardinals, W 34-28
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Week 2: Thursday, Sept. 12, at Miami Dolphins, W 31-10
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Week 3: Monday, Sept. 23, vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, W 47-10
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Week 4: Sunday, Sept. 29, at Baltimore Ravens, L, 10-35
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Week 5: Sunday, Oct. 6, at Houston Texans, L, 20-23
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Week 6: Monday, Oct. 14, at New York Jets, W 23-20
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Week 7: Sunday, Oct. 20, vs Tennessee Titans, W 34-10
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Week 8: Sunday, Oct. 27, at Seattle Seahawks, W 31-10
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Week 9: Sunday, Nov. 3, vs. Miami Dolphins, W 30-27
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Week 10: Sunday, Nov. 10, at Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m.
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Week 11: Sunday, Nov. 17, vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 4:25 p.m.
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Week 12: Nov. 24, BYE WEEK
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Week 13: Sunday Dec. 1, vs. San Francisco 49ers, 8:20 p.m.
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Week 14: Sunday, Dec. 8, at Los Angeles Rams, 4:25 p.m.
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Week 15: Sunday, Dec. 15, at Detroit Lions, 4:25 p.m.
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Week 16: Sunday, Dec. 22, vs. New England Patriots, 1 p.m.
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Week 17: Sunday, Dec. 29, vs. New York Jets, 1 p.m.
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Week 18: Sunday, Jan. 5, at New England Patriots, TBD
Sal Maiorana has covered the Buffalo Bills for four decades including 35 years as the full-time beat writer for the D&C, and he has written numerous books about the history of the team. He can be reached at [email protected], and you can follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana. https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills vs Colts prediction, keys to NFL Week 10 game
