Upward trend
Pittsburgh Steelers
“It was a fight. I didn’t feel anybody blink or any player run away from the challenge,” Mike Tomlin said with a satisfied snort after the Steelers eliminated the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday.
Tomlin has built a team that should struggle to be among the leaders of the AFC North. He may have also stumbled upon a franchise quarterback in Justin Fields, who is gaining confidence. His athleticism also helps boost offensive production, so the team’s balance isn’t tipped so heavily in favor of TJ Watt and the Steelers defense. The Steelers outgained the Chargers on the ground — a key win that saw LA’s JK Dobbins cut his 10 yards per carry before the game to just three in Pittsburgh — with Fields contributing a rushing touchdown. But it’s in the passing game that Fields’ speed and quick thinking have carried Pittsburgh. Against LA’s blitz, Fields went 8 of 9 for 119 yards and a touchdown without a single turnover-worthy play.
The next few games will be a juicy succession of 1-2 teams: the Colts, Cowboys and Raiders. Starting with Indianapolis, the Steelers should be confident they can get to 4-0, as the game looks very good from Pittsburgh’s perspective. Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith has the running power in Najee Harris and Fields to punish a Colts defense that is giving up 179 yards per game on the ground. Watt will also be confident he can harass Indy quarterback Anthony Richardson into continuing a slump filled with mistakes and missed throws.
Green Bay Packers
The arrow points up to a strong defense giving teams an advantage in 2024. The remaining undefeated teams – Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Buffalo and Seattle – show that overwhelming strength, innovation in left field and/or play two high safeties can be decisive.
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Another team that’s hot on this group is the Packers, who are on the rise. Matt LaFleur deserves credit for reinventing Malik Willis as a functional quarterback. But even more credit goes to the numbers on Jeff Hafley’s defense.
Green Bay leads the NFL in defensive play, with nine total turnovers and a turnover differential of +7. Interceptions have also come at a balanced pace, with three in each game, and the Packers have already matched their interception total from last season with seven.
Xavier McKinney has three. The safety was acquired from the Giants as a Swiss Army knife for Hafley, who can move around at will to constantly change what an offense sees. So far, that aggressive approach is working. McKinney has been lined up as a power safety, a post safety, a linebacker and even on the defensive line. Green Bay’s pass rush is working, too. Against the Packers, Jalen Hurts was constantly pressured, Anthony Richardson was pushed to the limit and Will Levis took eight sacks. A big factor in Sunday’s win over the Titans was Green Bay’s improvement in stopping the run, after giving up over 100 rushing yards in Weeks 1 and 2. Fewer rushes (just 11 attempts and 33 yards) meant more passes from Levis and even more opportunities for the league’s most opportunistic backfield to capitalize. It’s trickle-down economics that should pay dividends for a playoff run.
Downward trend
The superstar quarterback
Week 3 was a less-than-stellar weekend in a less-than-stellar season for an uncomfortable number of the NFL’s top quarterbacks. Let’s start with the big issue. The Dallas Cowboys are paying Dak Prescott $231 million in guaranteed money over the next four years and are 1-2 after mediocre production in back-to-back home losses. Does that sound like good value to you? His life-changing contract could be a high water mark for an excessive payout. And then there’s Cleveland’s $230 million guaranteed for Deshaun Watson, which represents an abject failure at team-building — and character — for the 1-2 Browns.
Elsewhere, No. 1 overall picks are also hurting the Big QB brand. Of the nine active players in the NFL, five have been drafted (Caleb Williams, Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield) and two are backups (Bryce Young and Jameis Winston), leaving just two players with a win (Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford). The shine of this current crop seems to be fading quickly, as “generational” quarterbacks like Lawrence and Burrow (both also in the $200 million and $218 million guaranteed stakes, respectively) have failed to win with their chances of making the playoffs are already diminishing.
Lawrence’s skills were the most abused Monday night. Burrow, at least, played in a Super Bowl and has thrown five touchdowns and no interceptions this season. Yes, Lawrence is playing on a flawed Jacksonville team. But so is Stafford, who beat the San Francisco 49ers without elite receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua and six offensive linemen on injured reserve.
One has to wonder how much the crown weighs on Lawrence. The Jaguars’ decision to temporarily rename their stadium “TrEverBank” only highlights his flaws. Forcing Lawrence to become a superstar when, in addition to his imposing stature, he comes across as a modest and reserved figure seems like a plan designed to boost the Jaguars’ relatively low market value, rather than help their prized asset realize his potential.
The picture is even bleaker with Young in Carolina. He has just 18 career starts and already seems unlikely to have a future with the Panthers. Doesn’t he look it, or did his 14 losses last season shatter his confidence? The Bears should rethink how they treat their star in light of Young’s struggles. Williams looked much better throwing the ball against the Colts and broke the all-time passing yardage record by a rookie. The three turnovers, one of which was a terrible call on a late throw, were much less encouraging, though. Rookie mistakes are expected. But repeated rookie mistakes over a season, forced to play behind the Bears’ mediocre offensive line, could do lasting damage. Chicago was never going to the Super Bowl this year, so why not put Williams behind a veteran he could learn from (that would, of course, require signing someone other than Tyson Bagent)? It worked for Patrick Mahomes.
