Los Angeles heads to Arizona after a big division win over the Broncos in Week 6 as a team gaining momentum despite mounting injuries. The Cardinals have looked like an exciting team at times, but have struggled against non-NFC West opponents.
Here are some reasons to be optimistic about Chargers‘ odds on Monday Night Football.
Develop a Passing Game
LA came out firing against Denver, throwing 11 of its first 14 plays after Broncos cornerback Patrick Surtain II left the contest on the first play with a concussion. Justin Herbert set season highs in completions (21) and yards (237) in a 23-16 victory, an encouraging sign for the Chargers’ offense.
With one more week between Herbert (ankle), left tackle Rashawn Slater (pectoral) and right tackle Joe Alt (ankle) and their respective injuries, the Chargers should be able to continue to get into shape as an offense more balanced with Herbert at the helm. . The potential return of wide receiver DJ Chark (groin) from injured reserve this week would also help Los Angeles understand what the offseason vision for this offense looked like.
Porous run defense
The Cardinals have struggled to stop the run, ranking 23rd in expected points added (EPA)/rush allowed and 26th in running success rate allowed. Los Angeles has shown time and time again that they can and will rely on the running game if it works, as JK Dobbins topped 100 yards twice and narrowly missed the mark last week against Denver.
The Chargers’ rushing attack also improved significantly with the return of Slater and Alt to the lineup, as Los Angeles racked up 128 rushing yards against a Broncos unit that entered the week among the top ten defenses on the ground. With a much smoother game on paper on Monday, Los Angeles might be able to cause some fireworks on the field in prime time.
It’s time to throw away
Arizona is 26th in the league in sack percentage this season and has generated just 79 pressures in 6 games, according to Pro Football Focus. (For comparison, a Chargers pass rush unit that disappointed a lot of people generated 86 pressures in 5 games.)
The Cardinals’ leader in pressures is interior rusher LJ Collier with 13, followed by edge rusher Dennis Gardeck with 10. The two of them are the only ones with double-digit pressures, but still rank 103rd and 87th in PFF’s pass rush win% metric. . As Herbert continues to improve after his sprained ankle in Week 2, his pocket management should reach a level where even those snaps don’t result in sacks. Combined with the development of the passing offense, this will give the Chargers an advantage on Monday.
Mark the defense
The Chargers have the best defense in the league, allowing just 13.2 points per game after holding the Broncos to 16 last week. After two explosive performances in their first two games, Arizona has scored 14 points or fewer in 3 of their last 4 games, including last week in a 34-13 loss to Green Bay.
Los Angeles is also the No. 1. 1 run defense on an EPA/rush basis and no. 2 while rushing, success rate allowed. These numbers “drop” to fourth in EPA/pass allowed and seventh in pass rate allowed. Put it all together, and the Chargers are the third-best defense in the NFL on an EPA/play basis. That should be more than enough to limit a struggling Cardinals offense.
Injury reports
Despite what looks like a CVS receipt-length injury report for the Chargers, Arizona actually has one more player on Thursday’s injury report as Los Angeles. That includes starting right tackle Kelvin Beachum, starting left guard Evan Brown, wide receivers Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson, nose tackle Roy Lopez, cornerbacks Sean Murphy-Bunting and Garrett Williams and linebacker Kyzir White.
Not all of these players will necessarily miss Monday’s game — only Beachum was DNP Thursday and Harrison appears to pass concussion protocol in time for the game — but Arizona will still be impacted to a significant degree. This works in the Chargers’ favor, considering Los Angeles will also be working without a full week of practice from several contributors.
This article was originally published on Chargers Wire: Chargers’ reasons for optimism in Week 7 against the Cardinals
