Playoffs? Broncos Country talking about the playoffs?
It may be crazy to believe, but here we are. The Broncos are 5-3, second in the AFC West and given that teams like the Bengals, Jets and Dolphins have played below expectations thus far, Sean Payton’s team has a chance to do something that didn’t seem possible in August.
There is a sense of hope in Denver, but the organization still has a way to go before truly escaping the dark abyss it has found itself in since 2016. If the Broncos want to end their eight-year playoff drought playoffs, there is a road map to get there. This is what it looks like:
Maintain defensive success
Payton said the identity of a championship team is rushing, consistent offense and defense. The Broncos succeeded in the latter, making for one of the biggest stories in the league considering last year’s struggles and the loss of Justin Simmons, one of the league’s best safeties, to during the offseason.
The Broncos have held their opponents to fewer than 20 points in six of eight games. Led by defensive end Zach Allen and edge rushers Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper, Denver has one of the best pass rushers in the league. Bonitto is on pace to record double-digit sacks while Cooper has a good chance to do the same. New additions like Malcolm Roach and John Franklin-Myers helped improve the team’s run defense. And the Broncos gave up four rushing yards per carry — tied for fourth in the league and a big improvement from last year’s 30th-ranked rushing defense.
In the secondary, cornerback Pat Surtain II is once again playing at an All-Pro level. Meanwhile, second-year cornerback Riley Moss has been solid in the starting role. Part of Denver’s success in the pass rush is its ability to man coverage, providing plenty of time for players up front to get after the quarterback.
The next three weeks against Baltimore, Kansas City and Atlanta should serve as a measure of how good Denver’s defense really is. If they are playing meaningful football in January, it is because the defense has maintained its high level of play.
Nix must continue to limit turnovers
From a numbers standpoint, Bo Nix was arguably the best rookie quarterback in October. The Broncos rookie threw for 870 yards, seven touchdowns and one interception while completing 66.7 percent of his passes.
The interception total is a sign of progress after Nix threw four picks in September. While there is still much room for improvement, the ability to protect the ball is paramount for Payton’s club to be successful.
At this point, the Broncos are 5-0 when Nix doesn’t throw an interception. They’re 0-3 when he does it.
Denver understands that there is no room for error. Payton said after Wednesday’s practice that one of the keys to beating the Ravens on Sunday was controlling time of possession. To do this, Nix will need to continue to avoid putting the ball in danger.
“Sometimes you put the ball in play and (the opponent) makes a good play,” Nix said. “We need to eliminate them and continue to gain revenue margin. When we do this, we succeed.
Rush attack needs more angry Javonte
Good things seem to happen when running back Javonte Williams moves around the field like a runaway freight train.
Similar to Denver’s success when Nix doesn’t throw a pick, the team is 8-0 when Williams rushes for at least 60 yards, dating back to the 2023 campaign. The only problem is consistency. Williams has been held under 50 rushing yards five times this fall, most recently in the Week 8 win over the Panthers when he ran for 44 yards on 17 carries and averaged 2.6 yards per attempt.
Through the first three games of the season, Williams totaled just 52 yards and was held under 20 yards twice. But last week aside, the last five games have been encouraging, with the former North Carolina Tar Heel recording 293 yards during that stretch.
It’s worth noting that five of the top six rushing attacks – Baltimore, Philadelphia, Washington, Green Bay and Detroit – are in playoff contention. These teams also have a combined record of 28-11. Denver is middle of the pack, ranking 14th in rushing yards per game (121.4). If the Broncos consider themselves playoff contenders, they will need consistent production from Williams and the rest of their running backs.
More big plays in the passing game
Nix, who passed for a game-high 284 yards last week, had no problem showing off his arm strength. The former Oregon signal-caller averages 8.2 air yards per attempt, according to Next Gen Stats.
The problem has been accuracy. Prior to Week 8, Nix had a 32.0 completion percentage on intermediate throws (10-19 yard passes downfield) and 39.1% (9 of 23) on passes longer than 20 meters down the field. While the win over a very bad Carolina team was an opportunity to establish a rhythm on such throws, the Broncos aren’t going to face the Panthers every week.
At some point, there will be a game or two where Denver needs Nix’s arm to run the offense. The Broncos’ trip to Baltimore could be one of those matchups. Baltimore is among the best at stopping the run, but is known for allowing explosive plays. This season, the Ravens have allowed six touchdown passes on throws of 20+ yards – the most in the league. Can Nix take advantage of this vulnerability?
It’s understandable that the Broncos want their offensive identity to be focused on the running game. But if they can incorporate more explosive plays into the offense, it will open up everything else.
“Every week we have to be able to expand the field that way,” Payton said. “We’re close.”
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