As we move at warp speed into the second half of the season, even the best teams in the NFL have issues to resolve before the playoffs. Because in the playoffs, every mistake is magnified and every big play is more important.
So here are five of the NFL’s most credible contenders, and the one potentially fatal flaw that could exclude each of these teams from the race for Super Bowl LIX. The list is far from exhaustive – there are plenty of other teams that could win the title – feel free to add your own picks and their weaknesses below.
Kansas City Chiefs (9-0)
Weakness: A lack of explosive offensive playmakers.
The Chiefs are like Bill Belichick’s best New England teams: whatever weakness you think you can exploit, they will develop another part of their game to beat you instead. And that’s why these Chiefs are undefeated. But they are undefeated despite a severe lack of explosive plays, especially in the passing game. This season, Patrick Mahomes has only four completions of 20 or more air yards on 14 attempts for 168 yards, three touchdowns, three interceptions and a passer rating of 77.1.
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To put that in perspective, Jordan Love of the Green Bay Packers leads the NFL with 15 such completions, and only two qualified quarterbacks – Jacoby Brissett of the New England Patriots and Deshaun Watson of the Cleveland Browns – have fewer than Mahomes. Neither Brissett nor Watson are starters on their own team.
Mahomes has a lot more going for him than Brissett and Watson, and the Chiefs’ running game, defense and special teams keep them afloat. But there has to be some concern in Kansas City about the lack of playmakers who can put opposing defenses in danger when it really counts. If the Chiefs face a more explosive offense in the playoffs and Steve Spagnuolo’s excellent defense can’t counter, what will the Chiefs’ response be?
Detroit Lions (8-1)
Weakness: A pass rush that may not be enough.
It’s tough to bet against the Lions after overcoming a 23-7 halftime deficit and Jared Goff’s five interceptions to beat a very athletic Houston Texans team Sunday evening. But like we said, we’re talking about the playoffs. And in the playoffs, any flaws will be magnified. For the Lions, this is a pass rush that has obviously suffered since elite player Aidan Hutchinson suffered a fractured tibia and fibula in Week 6. With Hutchinson, the Lions have made 18 bags. In his absence, they only managed nine.
The Lions’ pressure rate is actually slightly better without Hutchinson, but that’s because defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has been blitzing at a much higher rate – from 31.6% to 38.9% of their defensive snaps. before the Texans game. That’s all well and good, but blitzing at a higher rate makes you more vulnerable because there are fewer players to cover the receivers. And when a defense has fewer sacks because of more pressures, that tells you that defenders aren’t getting to the quarterback as often. Yes, pressures are important too, but sacks stop the play.
The recent trade for power forward Za’Darius Smith can fill the crater left by Hutchinson’s departure to a certain extentbut if not, this defense could be much more vulnerable to high-level passing plays as the season progresses. Head coach Dan Campbell’s optimism has worked wonders, but he can’t get the quarterbacks back on the field.
Buffalo Bills (8-2)
Weakness: Having to build the whole plane with Josh Allen…again.
Buffalo’s Sean McDermott should be considered for Coach of the Year, as this was supposed to be a rebuilding season for the team. Instead, these bills seem as dangerous as any when everything is working. A defense with many new pieces and a brand-new secondary has clamped down pretty well, and the offense with Allen can be a serious problem for any defense.
But throughout the Allen era, which really began in 2020 when he elevated his game to the highest level, the Bills have tended to rely too much on their quarterback. This season is no different. James Cook and Ray Davis are good running backs, but Allen has been the team’s best runner in years. And while Allen can win games as a passer, he hasn’t had an alpha receiver in a long time. This season, the trade of former Browns receiver Amari Cooper has helped a bit, but first-round rookie Keon Coleman is still struggling for consistency, and the team’s best receiver is the slot machine maven. under Khalil Shakir.
There’s no doubt that this is a brilliantly coached team on both sides of the ball, but over-reliance on Allen has kept the Bills from their Super Bowl goals time and time again in recent years – usually on the altar of the Chiefs. And while Allen wouldn’t be the first quarterback to go on a thermonuclear playoff streak to win a Lombardi Trophy, there’s a lot to look forward to — no matter how good that quarterback is.
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2)
Weakness: What if Russell Wilson was a mirage?
The one thing you’ll hear above all else when it comes to Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin is that he’s never had a losing season, and this is his 18th year at the helm . This is a remarkable record. But Tomlin has had to glue things together at quarterback over the past few seasons, primarily since Ben Roethlisberger began to decline in his final years with the Steelers.
The 2024 Steelers bypassed the draft to solve their quarterback problem and instead traded for Justin Fields and signed Wilson after he was released by the Denver Broncos. Fields was seen as a raw quarterback who needed the right environment, and Wilson was seen as the veteran whose best days were over. Tomlin started the season with Fields as his starter, but instead chose Wilson in Week 7.
Since Wilson became the starter, the Steelers are averaging 30.3 points and 382 yards per game, compared to 20.7 points and 298 yards per game with Fields. Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith seems to understand what Wilson’s offense needs to be: a dynamic running game, with Wilson’s deep shots off the play. That’s what worked for Wilson in Seattle, and that’s what that Sean Payton didn’t give him in Denver.
This could propel Pittsburgh to a place it hasn’t been in a long time… but Wilson is also known to slump for stretches, and if he doesn’t stay within himself, the Steelers could easily start to fall apart again. press on defense and special teams. scrounging them wins.
Baltimore Ravens (7-3)
Weakness: A collapsing defense.
In 2023, the Ravens had the best defense in the NFL at almost every level. They led the league in FTN defensive DVOAa measure that compiles opponent-adjusted effectiveness. They led the NFL in fewest points allowed with 280. They tied with the Browns and New York Jets for the lowest yards per play average in the league at 4.6. They allowed a league-low 19 passing touchdowns and threw 15 interceptions. Only the Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers had more total pressures than Baltimore’s 308. It was a totally dominant unit from front to back.
Now, without former defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, who left to become head coach of the Seattle Seahawks, and with rookie DC Zach Orr as his replacement, the Ravens rank 16th in defensive DVOA. They have allowed the third most points in the NFL with 253. They have allowed 5.7 yards per play, tied with the Giants and New York Patriots for fourth in the league. They have allowed 22 passing touchdowns (most in the league) and have just six interceptions. Last season, opposing quarterbacks had a passer rating of 77.9 against Baltimore’s defense, behind only the New York Jets. This season they have allowed a passer rating of 102.0, which is sixth worst.
The Ravens are still a Super Bowl threat as their offense is firing on all cylinders, and Lamar Jackson might just win his second straight MVP and third overall. But, at this rate, the Ravens offense will have to carry the defense for the rest of the season.
