We’re in the thick of it now. In most fantasy football leagues, there is only a month left in the regular season. Four games to determine who will advance to the playoffs and who will call them a year well before Christmas.
Running has arrived.
After 10 weeks, the team’s defensive landscape looks exactly like no one suspected – which is frankly normal when it comes to defense. Defense #1 (the Minnesota Vikings) thrive on big plays but can’t cover a bed with a sheet some weeks. The #2 defense in points per game (the Los Angeles Chargers) was an afterthought in the drafts. Most of the defenses that were written early on are now fantastical musings.
This is the nature of the beast in the least predictable position of fantasy. The reason streaming defenses are the only way to fly. But fantasy managers don’t want the streaming talk right now. They want to know what defenses can help (or hurt) them in Week 11. They want to live in the present.
So let’s be defensive.
THE WITHOUT DOUBTS
Minnesota Vikings (vs. Tennessee Titans)
This is such a “perfect” situation that something weird will probably happen: the most successful defense in fantasy football faces the team that has given up the most fantasy points per game to defenses this season. No team in the NFC has allowed fewer yards per game on the ground this season. Only the New England Patriots have thrown for fewer yards per game this season than the Titans. The Titans have also allowed 28 sacks and are tied for third most sacks in the NFL in 2024. As has been said, this game is almost too good to be true.
Denver Broncos (vs. Atlanta Falcons)
The Broncos have exceeded expectations this season, in large part because the defense has consistently been excellent – Denver ranks fifth in total defense, seventh in rushing defense, fourth in scoring defense and leads all defenses in the AFC for total fantasy points. On paper at least, the Atlanta Falcons appear to have the talent to challenge just about any defense. But last week, against a Saints team riding a seven-game losing streak, the Falcons struggled to move the ball consistently. Denver won’t make things any easier this week.
Houston Texans (vs. Dallas Cowboys)
The Texans played a great first half against the Detroit Lions last week. The problem is that NFL games have two halves. Yet Houston intercepted Jared Goff five times in this game, paving the way for the team’s fourth double-digit defensive effort in fantasy points in the last five games. The Dallas Cowboys couldn’t get anything going on offense in last week’s blowout loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, and unless the team kidnaps a quarterback this week, that probably won’t change over the course of of Week 11 given that Dallas can’t run the ball worth licking, either.
Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)
The Chargers are a 6-3 team that has won three straight, and one of the main reasons for that success is a defense that leads the NFL in points per game allowed and ranks second among all fantasy defenses in points per game. This week presents a real challenge: the Bengals just had nearly 500 yards of offense in a game where wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase had just about all the receiving yards ever. But the Chargers have a great secondary and pass rushers who should be able to take on Joe Burrow on Sunday night.
Detroit Lions (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)
The Lions have felt the loss of Aidan Hutchinson from an NFL perspective, but in fantasy leagues, the team has been Honolulu Blue-hot – since Week 6, only the Philadelphia Eagles have more fantasy points at this point. job. Now the Lions host a Jacksonville Jaguars team that will be without wide receiver Christian Kirk, will likely be without quarterback Trevor Lawrence and could also be without running back Tank Bigsby. Last week against the Vikings, the Jaguars totaled less than 150 offensive yards.
San Francisco 49ers (vs. Seattle Seahawks)
The 49ers have actually been somewhat disappointing defensively this year, but the team is still ninth in total defense and 10th in fantasy points for the year. There have been weeks where the Seahawks have looked formidable offensively, but Seattle has also tended to turn the ball over, with 15 giveaways for the season. The Niners may not be the elite fantasy option managers expected when they drafted them, but they should still finish top 10 at the position in Week 11.
Don’t miss the episodes of Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry and Rotoworld football fair throughout the season for the latest player news, waiver form help, starting/sitting tips and much more.
STEAMERS OF THE WORLD, UNITE!
New Orleans Saints (vs. Cleveland Browns)
The Saints are a bad team coming off their longest losing streak in over four decades. But the Saints are also quietly 12th among all defenses in fantasy points. The Saints aren’t brilliant in any particular defensive category, but they’re more of the Cleveland Browns than the Saints anyway. The Browns are third in fantasy points per game given up to defenses this year, lead the league in sacks allowed by a wide margin and will trot out Jameis “Oops” Winston again this week – so you know there will be an interception or three throws. .
Miami Dolphins (vs. Las Vegas Raiders)
A funny thing happened in Miami’s Week 10 win over the Rams in Los Angeles: The Dolphins defense showed up. A team without big point players constantly put pressure on Matthew Stafford. The Dolphins forced two turnovers. And they held the Rams out of the end zone en route to their best fantasy outing of the season. This week, the Dolphins face another must-win game against a Raiders team that has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to team defenses this year.
New York Jets (vs. Indianapolis Colts)
Remember when Aaron Rodgers was going to come in and save the day for Gang Green? Yeah, neither do Jets fans. And after watching the Jets defense get completely mauled last week by the Arizona Cardinals, it’s not particularly easy to get behind the team defensively either. But there appear to be two ways this game can go for the Colts. They can either start young Anthony Richardson and his nonexistent completion percentage, or (more likely) bring out Joe “Turnover Machine” Flacco again. Both bode well for the Jets defense.
Green Bay Packers (at Chicago Bears)
The Packers aren’t a great defensive team, but they’re not bad either — Green Bay ranks in the top 15 in most statistical categories, although they have struggled to generate a consistent pass rush. The Pack also quietly ranks among the top 12 fantasy defenses of the season. But Green Bay isn’t listed here because of what they do defensively. They’re listed here because of what the Bears don’t do offensively – which is nonsense. Since returning from bye, Chicago is fourth in fantasy points per game allowed to defenses.
Los Angeles Rams (at New England Patriots)
It’s true that the Rams’ young defense has had an up-and-down season, not only from week to week, but sometimes from quarter to quarter. However, Los Angeles’ front seven is significantly better than expected – particularly at rushing the passer. The Rams are eighth among fantasy defenses in total points, have posted monster stat lines (20+ fantasy points) twice in the last month), and this week the Rams travel to face a team from the New England Patriots who dropped out of fifth place. fantasy points per game to defenses this season.
WARNING EMPTOR, PEOPLE
Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Baltimore Ravens)
The Pittsburgh Steelers are one of the most surprising success stories of 2024, and if they can beat their rival Ravens at home this week, Pittsburgh can take firm control of the AFC North. TJ Watt and Pittsburgh’s second-ranked defense deserve a lot of credit for this success, as Pittsburgh is a top-five fantasy defense in terms of points per game. But the Ravens’ offense is a real buzzsaw – Baltimore is averaging over 440 offensive yards and 31 points per game and ranks dead last in fantasy points per game given up to defenses this season.
Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on @IDPSharks.
