The Green Bay Packers can put themselves on the verge of securing a playoff spot and seriously hurt the San Francisco 49ers’ chances of making the playoffs with a win against the 49ers on Sunday at Lambeau Field.
Pro Football Focus’ Timo Riske tracks playoff odds and individual matchup “leverage” every week.
In Week 12, the Packers can improve their playoff chances to over 90 percent while knocking off the 49ers by nearly 15 percent with a win in Sunday’s playoff rematch — making the game the one of the most important in the NFC playoff race this week.
https://twitter.com/PFF_Moo/status/1858927516150383047
The Packers are 7-3 and currently in possession of the sixth seed in the NFC. The 49ers are 5-5, behind the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC West and in 10th place in the NFC playoffs.
The 49ers are already 1-3 in the NFC West – with a home loss to the Cardinals – and 3-4 overall in the conference. A fifth conference loss – especially to a team ahead of them in the wildcard standings – would be devastating.
With a win, the Packers could improve to 8-3 and ensure they are at least two wins ahead of any team currently behind them in the playoff standings. A loss would reduce the Packers’ playoff chances to less than 60 percent while raising the 49ers’ chances to more than 50 percent, according to Riske’s projection.
The other extremely important game in the NFC playoff race this week is Cardinals vs. Seahawks. A Cardinals win would put Arizona’s playoff chances at just under 80 percent, but a loss would drop them below 40.
The NFC playoff race could actually gain a lot of clarity this week.
If the Packers, Cardinals and Commanders all win, the top seven teams in the conference would all have playoff odds above 70% heading into Week 13 – including five (Packers, Commanders, Vikings, Lions, Eagles) above 90%.
NFC Playoff Rankings
1. Detroit Lions: 9-1, face the Indianapolis Colts in Week 12
2. Philadelphia Eagles: 8-2, face the Los Angeles Rams in Week 12
3. Arizona Cardinals: 6-4, face Seattle Seahawks in Week 12
4. Atlanta Falcons: 6-5, bye week
5. Minnesota Vikings: 8-2, face Chicago Bears in Week 12
6. Green Bay Packers: 7-3, face San Francisco 49ers in Week 12
7. Washington Commanders: 7-4, face the Dallas Cowboys in Week 12
8. Los Angeles Rams: 5-5, face the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 12
9. Seattle Seahawks: 5-5, face Arizona Cardinals in Week 12
10. San Francisco 49ers: 5-5, face Green Bay Packers in Week 12
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 4-6, faces New York Giants in Week 12
12. Chicago Bears: 4-6, face the Minnesota Vikings in Week 12
